Are we going to sit by and watch another massacre in Sudan?

Your Proximities deep dive

Hello everyone,

On October 26 of last year, Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces (RSF) paramilitary group captured the city of el-Fasher after a brutal, grinding 18-month siege.

What followed was a nightmare.

Fighters from the group began to slaughter not only their opponents in the Sudanese army but thousands of civilians. The U.N. Human Rights Office documented more than 6,000 killings in just the first three days.

But while it is difficult to verify death tolls in this war, we can say for certain that the eventual number of people killed was many times higher.

Some experts, including Nathaniel Raymond of Yale University, think it is as high as 70,000, particularly given that at least 150,000 residents of el-Fasher remain unaccounted for. Raymond had a team of forensic scientists tracking events in real time using satellite imagery and continues to follow the conflict closely.

The world woke up too late. By the time the story hit the top headlines and by the time the West’s more prominent politicians started speaking out, thousands and thousands of innocent people had been killed in gruesome circumstances.

What is it they always say? “Never again.”

But today, eight months later, we are in an unsettlingly familiar place.

The RSF is laying siege to another city: el-Obeid.

The U.N. and a host of experts are sounding an increasingly urgent alarm, warning that the very same horrors might be about to unfold again.

Will anything - can anything - be done?

A deep dive below.

Barry.

P.S.: Episode 7 of The Proximities Podcast is up on Apple Podcasts, Spotify and YouTube.

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Tell me more about el-Obeid

It’s a major city with a population approaching 600,000. It’s also the capital of North Kordofan state and is located about 360 km southwest of Sudan’s capital Khartoum at the intersection of roads linking central Sudan with the Darfur region and the country’s southern states. As explained in this Al Jazeera piece, that “has made it one of Sudan’s most important commercial centres and a key logistical hub for both military operations and humanitarian aid.”

In other words, it is strategically important in the conflict.

It is currently under the control of Sudan’s army, which has been at war with the RSF for more than three years now, and that’s a big deal for them.

[For more on the background to the war, I have deep dives here and here.]

From the Al Jazeera piece again: “Military analysts say control of el-Obeid helps shape movement along key supply routes connecting central Sudan with Kordofan and Darfur.”

Caught in the middle of this military chess game are the people of el-Obeid. And, in a horrible twist, many fled other parts of Sudan to seek refuge there.

How imminent is its capture?

It’s hard to say, but as mentioned above, the U.N. and aid groups are screaming at the tops of their lungs. The RSF siege of el-Fasher lasted 18 months, and it should be pointed out that a siege is extremely barbaric in its own way.

During those 18 months, the RSF was constantly shelling el-Fasher and attacking it with drones. Food and medicine couldn’t get in. And most people were unable to flee because the RSF built a seven-kilometre network of berms (raised sand barriers) and earth walls encircling the entire city and trapping civilians inside.

We’re already into 18 months of siege-like conditions in el-Obeid, according to the U.N. There are relentless drone strikes, the prices of food and other goods have soared, and there are shortages of electricity and clean drinking water.

Is there sure to be a massacre if they capture the city? How do we know?