How many wars has Donald Trump really ended?

Your Saturday deep dive

Hello everyone,

Donald Trump says a lot. And much of what he says is untrue.

A few months ago, I worked on a documentary for Channel 4 in the UK, “Trump v the Truth,” in which we debunked 101 of his lies, distortions and exaggerations.

That number was just the tip of a deep iceberg but our film still took almost three hours to broadcast (cheekily aired on the first day of his state visit).

As part of the project, we looked at several statements the U.S. president had made on his desire to be a peacemaker and his claim that his New York dealmaker savvy had already led to the end of at least seven (now eight) wars.

While there were nuggets of fact in there—and the U.S. had been involved in some successful negotiations—the truth was a whole lot murkier.

And this week brought some bad news for Trump’s Nobel Peace Prize hopes.

First, Thailand and Cambodia started fighting on their border again, causing tens of thousands of people to flee their homes. Alarmingly, the fighting ran the full gamut of ground clashes, air raids, artillery fire and drone strikes.

Second, the Rwanda-backed M23 rebel group captured the key town of Uvira in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo less than a week after Trump triumphantly hosted Congolese President Felix Tshisekedi and his Rwandan counterpart Paul Kagame in the White House to agree a peace deal.

So, what’s the current status of the wars Trump says he has solved, what was his involvement in the first place, and what is his role now?

Instead of the usual Q&A format, I’ll simply go through the conflicts one by one.

Until next week,

Barry.

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Ethiopia and Egypt

This is the strangest one on the list for two reasons.

A) Ethiopia and Egypt were not at war. B) There was no peace deal (I find peace deals are usually unnecessary for countries that are not at war).

What has been going on between Ethiopia and Egypt, as covered in a previous Proximities deep dive, is a long-running diplomatic row over Ethiopia’s construction of a massive dam on the Nile River. Cairo considers it an existential threat, fearing it could cut off its supply of water from the river.

And while there has been sabre-rattling over the years and the two governments continue to occasionally trade barbs, there has so far been no violence.

There was also no apparent Trump intervention that led to a rapprochement between the two or even a ceremony of diplomatic niceties or similar.

Into the bargain, Trump also claimed the U.S. funded the $5 billion mega project.

It did not.

Israel and Iran

“We basically have two countries that have been fighting so long and so hard, that they don’t know what the fuck they’re doing,” Trump memorably said as his apparent frustration boiled over that a deal to stop the Twelve-Day War between Israel and Iran hadn’t taken hold as quickly as he hoped.

His anger came across as real and he seemed embarrassed, particularly by Israel launching sustained attacks just hours after he’d announced a deal.

On the surface, it could be argued Trump did end this one. But not so fast.