Under the radar: Mozambique's grinding war

Your Saturday deep dive

Hello everyone,

There are, unfortunately, so many conflicts in the world right now that we tend to see just a handful of them in the top headlines. Gaza, Ukraine, occasionally Sudan. Perhaps one of the most under-reported is the war between the government in Mozambique and Islamic State-Mozambique, an ISIS-affiliate.

It’s been going on since 2017 and, while it has ebbed and flowed, it sharply escalated over the last year, with the exception of a seasonal lull during the rainy season in December. New information also came to light this week about IS-M’s increasingly successful efforts to boost its revenue.

So it seems like a good time for a Q&A.

Before I go, two things:

1. Apologies for the lack of a deep dive last Saturday. I was unwell.

2. For newer subscribers, I wanted to remind you that you have access to an archive of more than 20 deep dives, most of which are evergreen. You can find them here.

Until next Saturday,

Barry.

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What’s the background to this?

It started in late 2017 when insurgents carried out their first attack in Mocímboa da Praia in the Cabo Delgado province in the country’s northeast, which remains the epicenter of most of the violence. Two years later they declared allegiance to ISIS. The militants briefly grabbed international headlines in 2021 when they launched an assault on the town of Palma. More than 600 people were killed in the attack and in the military’s recapture of the town, including foreigners working on a massive liquefied natural gas project run by France's TotalEnergies. The government has failed to defeat IS-M in subsequent years despite the deployment of about 1,000 troops from Rwanda.

What’s fuelling it? Why are IS-M rebelling?

Mozambique is a majority Christian country with a sizeable Muslim minority, mostly clustered in the north. But while the conflict is most often painted in the international media as motivated by religion, that’s only part of the story and the reality is more complicated - there are several root causes. The people of Cabo Delgado have long bemoaned their relative marginalization in contrast to privileged elites in the far south of the country, home to the capital Maputo. Natural resources are another major factor. There have been billions of dollars invested in the liquid gas industry but locals say they’ve seen no benefit. Some have also lost land to the gas infrastructure. Similarly, the discovery of some of the world’s largest ruby deposits led to residents being pushed out when multinationals took over. In an Institute of Security Studies survey in 2022, 45% of respondents said the main cause of the insurgency was the discovery of rubies and natural gas. Sixty percent believed that religion played some role in the violence but many of those felt that Islam was being weaponized.

What impact is it having on civilians?