Why are there so many coups in West Africa?

Your Saturday deep dive

Hello everyone,

I always hesitate to lump countries together for analysis. Journalists have a tendency to draw links when, given every nation has its own complexities, it doesn’t always make sense.

That tendency is most pronounced when foreign correspondents report on the African continent, blurring lines and oversimplifying.

As people from African countries often point out: Africa is not a country.

However, there are exceptions and the recent spate of coups in West Africa is one of them. Not only has there been contagion, but the new military leaders of several countries have clubbed together for support.

The latest military takeover in the region, as covered in Proximities on Wednesday, happened in Guinea-Bissau just days after a presidential election.

So, it seems a good time to examine the phenomenon in a Q&A.

Until next Saturday,

Barry.

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Talk me through these coups

Though there have been coups for decades, it makes most sense to go back to 2020 to discuss the current wave. In August of that year, a faction of military officers in Mali led by Colonel Assimi Goïta launched a mutiny and detained senior officials and ministers, including President Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta, who quickly resigned saying he didn’t want to see any bloodshed. Former defense minister Bah Ndaw was selected as president with Goïta as his deputy. In 2021, there was, well, a coup within a coup when Goïta toppled Ndaw.

There followed a deluge of similar takeovers. In 2021, Guinea saw a coup. Burkina Faso in 2022. Niger and Gabon in 2023.

And then, as mentioned, Guinea-Bissau on Wednesday.

If you include countries in central Africa and further east, such as Chad and Sudan, you have what has been called “the coup belt,” which extends unbroken right across the continent.

It was, to an extent, unexpected as many African political analysts had theorized that the era of military coups was over and there had been long periods of stability in several West African countries that had once been coup-prone.

What were the sparks? Were they similar?

Insecurity is a big one. In a previous Proximities deep dive, we discussed the war in the Sahel, particularly in the tri-border region, and the people of the countries at the center of that conflict have become increasingly angry.

That region is where the borders of Burkina Faso, Niger and Mali meet, enabling armed groups to fight all three governments at once. There are several self-declared Islamist groups, some of whom declare allegiance to ISIS or al-Qaeda, doing battle with the forces of the three states and gaining ground.

The leaders of the coup in Mali cited insecurity as the reason for their takeover, and many Malians genuinely hoped they would get the situation under control. It was similar in Burkina Faso—where a particularly charismatic military captain, Ibrahim Traoré, is now in power—and also in Niger.

In Guinea, it was different. There had been widespread protests against the government after President Alpha Condé, who was the country’s first democratically elected leader, sought to change the law so he could run for a third term. There was also public anger over commodity prices and tax hikes.

In Gabon, you could argue that it was a long time coming. The coup brought to an end 56 years of a father-son duo ruling the country—first President Omar Bongo and after his death in 2009 his son Ali.

Under their leadership, Gabon was spectacularly corrupt with the Bongos and some other senior officials becoming immensely wealthy from the oil trade while a third of the population lived in crippling poverty. Though the revolt was carried out by the military, Ali Bongo’s cousin Brice Oligui Nguema became president, leading some analysts to call this one essentially a palace coup.

It’s important to note that several of the coups have been popular with the people, exhausted by war, poverty and corruption. Several of the takeovers simply could not have happened without that public support.

Why the military took power in Guinea-Bissau is not yet fully clear as the story is still developing. Some are now putting forward the theory that it may have been staged by the president—an intriguing possibility. Let’s wait and see.

You said above that some of the leaders are co-operating?