Thanks so much for listening, Elizabeth. I think Eric explained well what a human approach would look like, but the chance of there being political will for it is so sadly slim.
Good interview Barry, I learned much from Eric on migration but I reckon there’s a lot more to the story than simple economic migration, although Morocco‘s terrible record on prospects for young people and work of course would be a factor. So very sad that many lost their lives (and if any ‘bad actors’ were responsible, you can bet they will never face consequences)
Here’s my uneducated stab at understanding the shadowy geopolitical machinations: OK there’s no evidence yet of geopolitical orchestration, but mobilising 60,000/70,000 people into Ceuta within 24 hours seems to require more than spontaneous movement—possibly sophisticated cyber-enabled coordination. The political result is convenient: Spain, critical of Israel and opposed to war with Iran, is humiliated; EU solidarity is strained; Washington and Jerusalem benefit.
And the larger prize may be strategic. If Morocco’s claims to Ceuta and Melilla gain US and Israeli backing, control of the Mediterranean’s Atlantic gateway could become a bargaining chip. In future, the Strait of Gibraltar may matter to Washington much as Hormuz does today—securing trade routes and potentially providing access to new bases. Ceuta and Melilla remain Spanish territories, though Morocco has long disputed Spain’s sovereignty over them.
Sorry for the late reply, Baz. I don't discount your stab! All interesting and smart. But I do think we need to look at Western Sahara and Morocco's current plan, as its colonial ruler, to give it a small measure of autonomy, effectively cementing Rabat's rule.
The plan is winning increasing support with more and more countries backing it. Trump has supported it also and got Morocco to join the Abraham Accords in return.
Also, Morocco has punished Spain in this exact same way before - in 2021 when the leader of the Polisario Front had medical treatment in Spain. And Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez did visit Algeria in July...
Like other theories, I can't say for sure this is what was behind it but Morocco has become very skilled diplomatically at getting what it wants on Western Sahara.
Thanks for your reply Barry, it’s all plausible really isn’t it? That’s the problem with our world, the geopolitical machinations don’t sleep. I guess to give context to my comment, what stood out for me was reading about Morocco’s defence spending which features Israeli cyber warfare tools. I used Perplexity™️ for a quick search here’s what it found:
Israel is probably Morocco’s most important recent supplier of specialised intelligence technology. Reported acquisitions and alleged procurements include:
Electronic warfare and signals intelligence (SIGINT): Elbit Systems reportedly supplied Morocco with its Alinet system in a deal valued at about US$70 million.
Cyber-surveillance tools: Investigations by the Pegasus Project and subsequent reporting have identified Moroccan use of Israeli NSO Group spyware, although the Moroccan government denies this.
Satellite reconnaissance: Morocco has reportedly agreed or planned to acquire an Israeli IAI Ofek reconnaissance satellite, potentially replacing its existing Airbus and Thales satellites. The exact status of the deal has not been fully confirmed publicly.
So, in intelligence technology specifically, Israel appears more prominent than its 15% share of Morocco’s overall arms imports would suggest.
Everyone hoping Cueta and migration challenges are going to disappear but not going to happen.
Thank you. It’s good to hear a more nuanced explanation of al this, tho depressing.
Thanks so much for listening, Elizabeth. I think Eric explained well what a human approach would look like, but the chance of there being political will for it is so sadly slim.
Good interview Barry, I learned much from Eric on migration but I reckon there’s a lot more to the story than simple economic migration, although Morocco‘s terrible record on prospects for young people and work of course would be a factor. So very sad that many lost their lives (and if any ‘bad actors’ were responsible, you can bet they will never face consequences)
Here’s my uneducated stab at understanding the shadowy geopolitical machinations: OK there’s no evidence yet of geopolitical orchestration, but mobilising 60,000/70,000 people into Ceuta within 24 hours seems to require more than spontaneous movement—possibly sophisticated cyber-enabled coordination. The political result is convenient: Spain, critical of Israel and opposed to war with Iran, is humiliated; EU solidarity is strained; Washington and Jerusalem benefit.
And the larger prize may be strategic. If Morocco’s claims to Ceuta and Melilla gain US and Israeli backing, control of the Mediterranean’s Atlantic gateway could become a bargaining chip. In future, the Strait of Gibraltar may matter to Washington much as Hormuz does today—securing trade routes and potentially providing access to new bases. Ceuta and Melilla remain Spanish territories, though Morocco has long disputed Spain’s sovereignty over them.
What do you think?
Sorry for the late reply, Baz. I don't discount your stab! All interesting and smart. But I do think we need to look at Western Sahara and Morocco's current plan, as its colonial ruler, to give it a small measure of autonomy, effectively cementing Rabat's rule.
The plan is winning increasing support with more and more countries backing it. Trump has supported it also and got Morocco to join the Abraham Accords in return.
Also, Morocco has punished Spain in this exact same way before - in 2021 when the leader of the Polisario Front had medical treatment in Spain. And Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez did visit Algeria in July...
Like other theories, I can't say for sure this is what was behind it but Morocco has become very skilled diplomatically at getting what it wants on Western Sahara.
I actually did a deep dive on it in April: https://www.proximities.news/p/western-sahara-morocco-makes-its
Thanks for your reply Barry, it’s all plausible really isn’t it? That’s the problem with our world, the geopolitical machinations don’t sleep. I guess to give context to my comment, what stood out for me was reading about Morocco’s defence spending which features Israeli cyber warfare tools. I used Perplexity™️ for a quick search here’s what it found:
Israel is probably Morocco’s most important recent supplier of specialised intelligence technology. Reported acquisitions and alleged procurements include:
Electronic warfare and signals intelligence (SIGINT): Elbit Systems reportedly supplied Morocco with its Alinet system in a deal valued at about US$70 million.
Cyber-surveillance tools: Investigations by the Pegasus Project and subsequent reporting have identified Moroccan use of Israeli NSO Group spyware, although the Moroccan government denies this.
Satellite reconnaissance: Morocco has reportedly agreed or planned to acquire an Israeli IAI Ofek reconnaissance satellite, potentially replacing its existing Airbus and Thales satellites. The exact status of the deal has not been fully confirmed publicly.
So, in intelligence technology specifically, Israel appears more prominent than its 15% share of Morocco’s overall arms imports would suggest.
Very informative
Thanks for taking the time to listen, Patsy.